Pro Basketball Picks
NBA: Boston at Milwaukee (8:00 PM ET, FSN)
2010-03-09
After spending a month taking advantage of a schedule that included some of the league’s worst teams, the Milwaukee Bucks are one game into a stretch that sends three of the NBA’s best to the Bradley Center. They already turned back the LeBron-less Cavaliers on Saturday night. Up on Tuesday are the Boston Celtics, and Bucks are a 1-point home favorite according to Sportsbook.com.
A breakout performance from the struggling Brandon Jennings helped the Bucks top the team with the league’s best record, and they’ll look for a 10th win in 11 games Tuesday night as they try to snap the Boston Celtics’ four-game winning streak.
Milwaukee (33-29, 40-21-1 ATS) was three games out of the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot as of Jan. 26, but it has gone 15-4 and even more amazing 15-3-1 ATS since then to jump into fifth place. Of the Bucks’ first 14 victories in that stretch, 13 came against the bottom nine teams in the East. Only Miami, which Milwaukee beat three times, currently owns a winning record.
Visits from Cleveland, Boston (40-21, 26-34-1 ATS) and Utah in a seven-day stretch should give the Bucks a bigger challenge, but questions remained even after their first test. Jennings scored 25 points in a 92-85 victory Saturday over the league-best Cavaliers, who gave LeBron James a night off to rest his sore ankle.
“There’ll be people saying it was a great game and there’ll be other people saying well, LeBron didn’t play, if he would have played, they would have won,” said Andrew Bogut, who had 15 points and nine rebounds. “It’s a lose-lose situation for us.” The Bucks are 18-4 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season.
Milwaukee can hope Jennings’ effort is the precursor of a personal turnaround. The rookie point guard had averaged 9.9 points and shot 29.7 percent since Feb. 1 before sparking the victory over Cleveland. Just three days earlier, after shooting 2 for 12 in a win over Washington, Jennings said he wasn’t even sure if wanted to continue taking shots.
That public display of frustration didn’t please coach Scott Skiles. “Right now, I’m playing for something bigger,” Jennings said after hitting five 3-pointers against the Cavaliers. “Main thing is get to playoffs, having the city start believing in us and keep going on from there.” Milwaukee hasn’t lost a game against the spread since Feb. 17 to Houston, accumulating 9-0-1 ATS mark.
If Milwaukee ends up in the postseason for the first time since 2006, it might find itself facing the Atlantic Division-leading Celtics in the first round. Boston is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in March after going 9-11 from Jan. 14-Feb. 27, but much like during the Bucks’ winning stretch, the competition has hardly been fierce.
The Celtics’ streak has been built against the teams currently occupying then 9th-12th spots in the East, and they had to battle back to beat Washington at home on Sunday night. Boston trailed 79-66 with 6:11 remaining before responding with a 20-4 closing run to secure an 86-83 win. Ray Allen had eight of his 25 points in the decisive stretch.
“We’ve lost so many of these where we played poorly and lost,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. “It was nice to play poorly and win. I just wish we could have played the first 40 minutes, like we played the last eight.” Boston is 24-12 ATS after a win by six points or less over the last two seasons.
Boston lost its latest visit to Milwaukee last March 15 as Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo combined to shoot 8 of 36. That was the Celtics’ only loss in the series’ last eight games (3-5 ATS). Kevin Garnett - who didn’t make a field goal Sunday for the first time in more than 14 years - had 25 points and nine rebounds in a 98-89 win at TD Garden on Dec. 8. Bogut had 25 points and 14 rebounds in the loss while committing a season-high seven turnovers. That was one of only three Milwaukee losses in 17 games in which Bogut has scored 20 points or more.
Sportsbook.com has the Bucks as a one-point home favorite with total of 188 and they are 11-3 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. Normally, Milwaukee and the word defense are not used in the same sentence, except for negative connotation. However, the Bucks are 10-2 UNDER when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, winning by seven points per game this season. Boston definitely prefers to play at their own pace, with pale 2-12 ATS record versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game since the beginning of the season and are 25-12 UNDER in road encounters when playing against a club with a winning record.
This Eastern Conference matchup is available in both local TV markets at 8:00 Eastern and Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this campaign.
StatFox Power Line – Milwaukee by 7
Tough choices for bettors in pair of Game 6’s
2009-05-15
The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers proved their mettle in Game 5’s in different ways. Boston showed the true heart of a champion in overcoming 14-point deficit to oust Orlando 92-88. The Lakers on the other hand reeked with determination and easily buried an out-classed and undermanned Houston club. What will Game 6 provide, lets take a look inside. Take a minute or two to review PROFITABLE ANGLES, powered by StatFox.com and understand where the money is going with BETTING TRENDS at Sportsbook.com.
The Orlando Magic is quickly becoming the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals of playoff basketball. The ‘Stros and Nats lead the majors in blown saves with 10 and the Magic keep coming up more empty than a group of guys leaving Hooters on Church Street in downtown Orlando at closing.
It is evident Orlando is the better team without Kevin Garnett playing for Boston, yet this Celtics team keeps fighting, clawing and scratching to win, which is a testament to the players and coach Doc Rivers. The Celtics are a team Al Davis would love, “Just win baby” and they manage to just so as compared to the Raiders. Boston makes one more trip South and is 8-2-1 ATS on the road.
Dwight Howard was right and wrong to call out his coach Stan Van Gundy about touches in the fourth quarter. He was wrong in the sense you don’t do that after losing a game you clearly had in the bag and let escape, down 3-2 in postseason. He is right that this has been a continual pattern for Orlando in the playoffs, blowing big leads, sometimes winning and sometimes not.
Looking into the issue deeper, here is what is uncovered. If Howard, aka “Superman” is such a dynamic offensive threat, why don’t his own players trust him in the last five minutes of the game? NBA players might not be the sharpest lot off the court, but they understand the game. Are Orlando players too concerned that Howard will make a turnover with the ball at crunch time? Does Howard really work to get the ball, spreading himself out to demand it? Finally, some believe Howard in the best center in the NBA right now, which by my calculations in similar to being heavyweight boxing champion, doesn’t mean much.
Let’s not forget, Howard is a rebounding and dunking machine, but his post moves couldn’t fill a Dunkin Donuts Yahoo sports minute.
Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com see an angry Orlando club looking to square the series at 3-3 and have made them the largest favorite of the series at 6.5-points, with total of 190. The Magic are 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season and are 7-1 UNDER off a spread loss.
Van Gundy received deserved criticism for playing J.J. Redick 29 minutes in Game 5, especially when he had only one basket.
Boston is 17-4 ATS after a win by six points or less this season and is 14-6 UNDER after consecutive wins. The C’s don’t win last contest without Stephon Marbury, can he deliver again?
The L.A. Lakers finally showed why they are best wager to win the NBA title. The Los Angeles Zen Master would never sink to such low depths of using simple math to motivate his team, but the Lakers are NBA champions if they understand 12 x 4 = 48.
Los Angeles showed they are capable of playing all 48 minutes, though in Game 5 they really didn’t need to. They shot over 51 percent, manufactured countless steals and actually showed toughness with Lamar Odom battling through bad back to play 19 minutes.
The Lakers are 31-14 (24-20-1 ATS) as visitors and if they come to play, should win this contest to close out series. It is all about steely resolve and Phil Jackson’s Lakers’ teams are 11-1 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.
Houston is on the receiving end of eight-points with total of 197. The Rockets have no chance to win if they can’t contain Lakers and not let them sniff the century mark. Houston is 15-4 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points and it comes as no surprise the average total score in those contests is 186.9. Rick Adelman’s club is 13-4 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more this season, but that included the big man in the middle.
The coverage turns over to ESPN on Thursday starting at 7 Eastern and the series leaders either closeout or head back home for Game 7 finale.
NBA: Knicks try to avoid back-to-back sweep
2009-03-23
The New York Knicks don't appear to be going anywhere again this season, however they could some damage to the hopes of Orlando when they host the Magic Monday night. New York kept in the game Saturday in Central Florida, losing 110-103 as 13-point road underdogs and will attempt to derail the Orlando express in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are a hefty 5-point home dog. See where your colleagues are placing their trust on the BETTING TRENDS page.
The Magic have won nine of 11 (8-3 ATS) and have benefited from Kevin Garnett and other Boston players being out of the lineup, to tie the Celtics with 18 losses on the season, fighting for second seed in the Eastern Conference. This will be Orlando's second back to back series this season, having won and covered previously against Atlanta in early January.
With just 13 games left in the regular season, Orlando (51-18, 45-24 ATS) can't get ahead of themselves, even against a team like New York. Dwight Howard and the Magic play host to Boston Wednesday and have to stay the same course that enabled them to have a 24-11 and 25-10 ATS record on the road this season.
New York (28-41, 39-29-1 ATS) had brought themselves to the edge of playoff discussion, however four losses in a row, means another trip back to the lottery. Coach Mike D'Antoni, after years of success in Phoenix, knew this was rebuilding job, but has to be contumely with his players after latest swoon.
The Knicks have been the recipient of a number of points all season and have been a solid wager; including being 21-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. "We can by no means start packing it in," Knicks guard Larry Hughes said. "We still have games to play. If we don't make the playoffs, we still want to finish on a strong note."
About the only way New York gets back into playoff conversation is if they finish 13-0, and not sure if Patrick Ewing, Walt Frazier and Bill Bradley could come back in their prime, if that would even be a possibility. At the very least, possibly the Knicks could extract quick turnaround revenge and improve to 29-18 ATS this season when faced with that prospect.
Sportsbook.com has New York as five-point home underdogs and they are 8-9 and 10-7 ATS when oddsmakers place them in that roll. The total has landed on 213.5. The Knicks are superb 14-3 against the number when playing third game in four days and 12-3 OVER at MSG after a combined score of 205 points or more for two straight games. Orlando is most rested and is playing only second game in five days and is 13-4 ATS when this happens. The Magic are 13-4 OVER in road games after covering two of last three against the spread.
This confrontation will start at 7:35 Eastern, with the Knicks a fetid 5-15 ATS in March home games the last three years.
StatFox Power Line - Orlando by 10
NBA: Top Weekend Power Trends 1/9-1/11
2009-01-09
Some of the league’s top teams have lost some steam over the past week or two in the NBA. Cleveland, Boston, Orlando and Los Angeles have all shown some of that “disinterest” that seems to affect the pro’s around this time of the year. However, that doesn’t take any of the luster off of the showdown set for Friday night in Cleveland between the Celtics and Cavaliers. That game is just one of many intriguing contests on tap for this weekend in the NBA. Here’s a quick look at some of the action along with a set of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider.
On Friday night, the stage is set for the showdown in Cleveland. The Cavs and Lebron James are unbeaten at home, 18-0 SU & 14-4 ATS while outscoring opponents by 16.6 PPG. However, they’ve lost outright twice in their last four games and are on a 2-4 ATS skid. However, starting with the Christmas defeat in L.A., the Celtics are on a 2-6 SU & ATS slide themselves and have failed to reach the 90-point mark five times during that stretch. In any case, with the top spot on the line in the Eastern Conference, it should still be a great game. Elsewhere on Friday, the leaders in the Southeast Division will collide for the second time in three days. Orlando pulled the upset in Atlanta on Wednesday and the Hawks will be looking to return the favor in Mickey Mouse Land. Out west, the Pistons start a difficult Friday-Saturday back-to-back when they take on Denver, now without the services of Carmelo Anthony. A bit later, Dallas, winners of eight of their L10 games, will travel to Phoenix.
On Saturday, the betting board in light in the NBA with just six games, and only one of the games involves two teams that are considered playoff contenders. That contest is in Utah, where the Jazz will look for an 8th straight win over the Pistons in the head-to-head series. Take a look at what readers of this week’s StatFox Platinum Sheet were told about this game:
1/10/2009 - (509) DETROIT at (510) UTAH
I was fortunate to get a Best Bet win a few weeks back when Utah outscored Detroit in the overtime period to win up in the Motor City. However, for the same reason I liked the Jazz then, I’ll go back to them here. They just seem to have a hex over the Pistons, winning seven straight games in the head-to-head series. They are the only team in the NBA that can make such a claim against one of the league’s premiere teams in recent years. The Pistons, somewhat like their Central rival, the Bulls, have changed for the worse under Micheal Curry. Defense seems to be secondary, and that doesn’t get it done against teams like Utah, that can be relied upon to cover two out of every three games as a home favorite on average (40-20 ATS over L2 seasons). Play: Utah minus the points
Finally, on Sunday, seven games grace the schedule, spanning nearly the entire day. Boston visits Toronto at 12:35 PM ET to start it all off. However, the best games will come in the evening when Orlando visits San Antonio, and Miami travels to L.A. to take on the Lakers. The Magic, 13-5 SU & ATS on the road in ’08-09, start a four game Wetsern Conference trip with that contest. The Spurs are heating up, winners of nine of their L10 games heading into the weekend. Kobe & Co. will be looking to avenge an 89-87 setback in South Beach last month, but the Heat always seem to play the Lakers well.
Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends alluded to earlier.
Friday, 1/9/2009
(805) CHARLOTTE vs. (806) PHILADELPHIA
CHARLOTTE is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) vs. terrible 3PT shooting teams -making <=30% of their attempts since 1996. The average score was CHARLOTTE 92, OPPONENT 102.5 - (Rating = 2*)
(807) BOSTON vs. (88) CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) vs. good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 94.4, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 2*)
(811) LA CLIPPERS vs. (812) NEW ORLEANS
LA CLIPPERS are 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 90.9, OPPONENT 103.2 - (Rating = 2*)
(817) DETROIT vs. (818) DENVER
DETROIT is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) vs. teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 95.9, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 2*)
(821) INDIANA vs. (822) LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 25-10 ATS (+14 Units) vs. up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the L2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 114.6, OPPONENT 103.9 - (Rating = 2*)
Saturday, 1/10/2009
(501) CHARLOTTE vs. (502) WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 97.3, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 2*)
(509) DETROIT vs. (510) UTAH
UTAH is 40-20 ATS (+18 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UTAH 107.1, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 2*)
(511) GOLDEN STATE vs. (512) PORTLAND
GOLDEN STATE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) vs. poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 TOs/game this season. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.6, OPPONENT 113.6 - (Rating = 3*)
(511) GOLDEN STATE vs. (512) PORTLAND
PORTLAND is 35-17 UNDER (+16.3 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 99+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 96.8, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 1/11/2009
(81) BOSTON vs. (802) TORONTO
BOSTON is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 104.8, OPPONENT 90.8 - (Rating = 4*)
(805) PHOENIX vs. (806) LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) at home vs. good 3PT shooting teams (>=36%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 89.7, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 2*)
(809) INDIANA vs. (810) GOLDEN STATE
GOLDEN STATE is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) at home vs. poor defensive teams allowing 99+ PPG over the L2 seasons. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 114.5, OPPONENT 110.8 - (Rating = 2*)
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